In this episode of The Silk and Steel Podcast, host Carl Zha is joined by Han Fei-Zi (aka Blue Bear Monkey, formerly Doggy) – a prolific writer for Asia Times – for a deep dive into the real size of China's economy, the structural flaws in Western economic thinking, and why the US is living in a delusion that could lead to catastrophic decisions.
The explosive claims:
• China's economy is 2-3 times larger than the US, not 25% larger on PPP or smaller in nominal terms
• China has been lowballing its GDP for decades – for WTO negotiations, to maintain "developing nation" status, and out of institutional inertia
• The ICP (International Comparison Program) data that sets purchasing power parity is fundamentally flawed – comparing China to Mexico is absurd
• The "smile curve" that told the West to offshore manufacturing was measuring the wrong thing – manufacturing is actually the hardest, most valuable part
We break down:
• Why electricity consumption, car sales, and steel production tell a truer story than GDP figures
• How the US runs on "Dutch disease" – selling assets (treasuries, stocks, real estate) instead of producing goods
• Why Scott Bessent and Trump are delusional about trade war leverage
• The petrodollar vs. petroyuan shift – and why Iran's demands for yuan payments are a game-changer
• How BRI just had a record year (double the previous record) – the "BRI is dead" narrative was wrong
• Why Western aid is just "window dressing" – while China builds roads, rails, and power grids
Plus: Why Chinese parents send their kids to US universities (it's not what you think), the truth about Chinese students at Tsinghua, and why Elon Musk said design is a "rounding error" compared to manufacturing.
Han Fei-Zi writes for Asia Times and can be found on X as Blue Bear Monkey (formerly Doggy). Follow for provocative, colorful takes on China's economy.
