The Numbers Don’t Lie: Excess Deaths—Ed Dowd

Debi Evans and Cheryl Grainger are joined by Ed Dowd (finance website | Twitter), a very well respected former BlackRock employee who oversaw $14 billion in assets on Wall Street for the largest asset manager in the world. Dowd used his number-crunching skills to expose the alarming rise in excess mortality across the globe, which appeared to be tightly correlated with the Covid vaccine rollout. Dowd lives in Maui and has been involved in taking aid to his neighbours on the island after the tragic wildfires that destroyed the Hawaiian village of Lāhainā in August 2023. He gives our audience an update of how life is in Maui today, as we approach Christmas 2023. 

In his excellent but desperately sad book, Cause Unknown, Dowd examines the ‘pandemic’ of sudden deaths in the US. Between 2021 and 2022, he noticed a pattern of sudden deaths among fit athletes and otherwise healthy young people. His book introduces us to many personal accounts and stories in this regard over the last 18 months.

What changed in 2021 to cause this? What was the insurance industry noticing? 

In March 2022, Ed Dowd boldly asserted, “This is what we call democide, death by government.” Dowd and his team at Phinance Technologies have been working tirelessly and pro bono to analyse the data, to explore the links between excess deaths, disability and loss of work days with the rollout of Covid–19 vaccinations. His work has shone a light on countries around the world, including the United Kingdom, where the data is more readily available than in many other states.

In this interview, four areas of concerning data are highlighted:

  • Actuaries' tables from US life insurance companies
  • British National Health Service sickness absence rates
  • British excess death rates
  • UK PIP (British disability benefit recipients data)

Life insurance data is showing a massive spike in excess deaths among younger, working-aged people, that began in 2021. Why? 

According to US mortality data, excess deaths in September 2021 among 25- to 44-year-old Americans were 70% above normal. Why? 

A report by the non-profit Society of Actuaries found that 34% more 35- to 44-year-old Americans died than expected in the last three months of 2022. Why?

As of May 2023, the most recent month for which data are available, deaths in this age group remained 10% above expected. Why? 

More deaths occurred among white-collar than among blue-collar workers. Why? 

Why are so many of our youngest in society, including even under-fives, becoming so sick? Why are so many dying unexpectedly? 

So far, it appears that plausible explanations are elusive.

In the USA, the Society of Actuaries maintains that Covid–19 does not fully explain these deaths, despite many calls for an immediate stoppage and investigation of the dangers of Covid–19 vaccine serious adverse events and deaths in order to eliminate any causal link. Meanwhile, insurance companies are footing the seemingly endless bill incurred by claims and payouts occasioned by a sharp rise in mortality among people of working age. How do insurance companies explain the unprecedented rise in life insurance claims in the third quarter of 2021 in people considered to be amongst the healthiest in society, and how long can they afford to continue to pay out? When do the insurance companies take on the pharmaceutical companies to ascertain cause? 

Ed Dowd has been analysing in-depth UK disability data from the Department for Work and Pensions. Notably, Personal Independence Benefit (PIP) is a welfare payment awarded to people who need help with extra living costs due to a long-term physical, mental health condition or disability. People in the United Kingdom can get PIP even if they are working: it is a tax-free benefit and not means-tested. PIP is awarded at different rates depending on need. Someone with the highest needs will receive £8,983 per annum, equivalent to £737.40 over a four-week period. 

By way of context regarding data quality, the pathway to claiming PIP is arduous and not for the faint-hearted. The application forms are detailed and lengthy. Many who claim PIP do not receive an award and have their claims rejected. Claims which are accepted can take up to 20 weeks to process. Many who struggle with disability do not apply at all, put off by the process. Those diagnosed with a terminal condition, and with a life expectancy of under one year, are fast-tracked and will automatically receive PIP under Special Rules

A standard deviation (SD) is a statistical expression of how much each point on a distribution curve differs from the mean. 95% of values in a graph are within two SDs. Any value in excess of three SDs is considered a signal (valid indication of an anomaly). 3.8 SDs expresses the chance of being hit by lightning in a lifetime. A score of ten SDs indicates a statistically improbable event from normal. With an exponential rise in PIP claims that Dowd describes as an extremely abnormal ‘black swan event’, he asks: why? 

Ed Dowd strongly believes that without an investigation into the dangers of the Covid–19 vaccines, in order to eliminate the injections as a cause, it must be assumed that there is a significant link until proven otherwise. What is clear however, is that unless the UK Government urgently investigates,  the disability benefit system will risk insolvency. In the United States, the picture is similar. Disability rates in the USA have soared from an annual baseline of 29 to 30 million disabled in the population to 33.2 million. That is to say, there are an additional 4.2 million disabled Americans than there were just two and half years ago.

Why the silence from health authorities? Is it a cover-up, data hidden in plain sight? Dowd warns that the Covid–19 pandemic will affect future generations for decades to come. Finally, in his capacity as an analyst of macrotrends, he gives us an exclusive forecast on the world economy. How deep does the present recession go? How bad will it become, and what actions should we take? 

UK Column would like to thank Cheryl Grainger, Stephanie Sinclair, and Stacey Asencio-Sutphen, who facilitated this interview.