In this fascinating episode of The Silk and Steel Podcast, host Carl Zha is joined by Ting Xin (co-host of Escape from Plan A) to dissect one of the most puzzling economic puzzles of the Iran war:
Why is gold crashing while oil is surging?
Conventional wisdom says that in times of geopolitical crisis, both gold and oil should rise together as safe haven assets. But that's not what's happening. Gold has dropped over 10% while oil flirts with $100/barrel. The dollar is strangely strong. Treasury yields are spiking.
What's going on?
Ting Xin's thesis (with charts!):
* The US Treasury, under Scott Bessent, is manipulating the gold market to punish countries that hold gold reserves instead of dollars
* This is a petrodollar offensive – keep the dollar pegged to oil by crushing gold's value
* Iran is now demanding payment in Chinese yuan for oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz
* China is fighting back by dumping US treasuries and buying up the gold the US is selling
* This is a full-scale financial war being fought alongside the hot war in West Asia
We break down:
* Why the "margin call" and "inflation print" explanations for gold's crash don't hold water
* How the US can manipulate gold prices through gold swaps with bullion banks (without breaking the law)
* The 1997-98 Hong Kong dollar crisis: Scott Bessent's first defeat by the PBOC
* Why the bond market is violently rejecting this war (treasury yields spiking)
* The psychological shift in America: Why the right wing is turning on Trump over this war
* Why Americans see this as Israel's war – and why that matters
* The fundamental truth: No one needs US dollars anymore except to buy oil
Plus: The late Soviet Union parallels, the "gay eunuch" model of US governance, and why gold will eventually win.
